Warm weather will surge into the Sauk Valley region starting Saturday and last through Sunday evening. Expect temperatures ranging in the low to mid 70s for both days as southerly winds take place along with increasing dewpoints. With that, a chance for showers and thunderstorms will come into our forecast late Sunday night through the overnight hours which could pose a threat for marginally strong/severe thunderstorms.
Take a look at our Saturday temperature splurge!
Temperatures expected to reach into the lower 70s with a gentle southerly wind by the mid afternoon while those to our east should remain slightly cooler in the upper 60s. With that, cloud cover on Saturday will remain very non-existent and we will remain dry. Make plans for Saturday!
Forward into Sunday, same thing is at play. Although we'll have slightly more cloud cover in the latter part of the day, expect low to mid 70s again with those gentle southerly winds.
I mentioned our dew points increasing for this weekend as well. That'll make it feel a bit warmer as well as our dew points should reach into the upper 50s, and possibly low 60s. The below image shows dew points at our 00z NAM12K which is 7PM CST. NAM typically runs high on dew point especially this time of year, however with the southerly winds in play, we will likely reach upper 50s for our dew points and quite possibly low 60s late afternoon Sunday.
With that, we are also monitoring a storm system that may impact our area late Sunday night. A storm system is expected to move from eastern Nebraska through Iowa through Sunday which will likely cause severe weather across Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, and parts of Minnesota. The threat across the Sauk Valley will remain pretty low and likely remain in the marginal threat unless this system shifts east.
Lapse rates, dew points, and CAPE values are pretty decent across the slight risk which could bring primary threats of damaging winds and hail. However, a brief spin-up cannot be ruled out in the slight risked area. Here across the Sauk Valley, the storms will likely be entering an atmosphere that is becoming more stable over time. Therefor storm coverage and threats will be minimal and likely remain a marginally severe hail threat across portions of Whiteside and western Lee county. More updates to follow regarding the severe weather threat for this weekend.
With that said, enjoy Saturday and Sunday as mild weather will return to the forecast area Tuesday as we dip back into the 50s and lower 60s through next week.