8:30PM Update: Severe thunderstorms have recently developed over parts of Minnesota where a higher threat for tornadic activity exists early this evening. It’s expected after midnight that these storms will combine to create a cluster of storms with the potential to produce damaging winds and quickly race southeast through parts of eastern Iowa and northern Illinois very early Monday morning. Tornado watches have been posted for much of southern Minnesota as of 8pm.
Most of the model projections have this complex arriving well after midnight, after 3am or so. We should be able to maintain enough instability to maintain the threat for some damaging wind potential in the area. This combined with an increasing low-level jet will not only sustain that risk but it will also add to the flash flooding risk as we may see repeated storm activity. Copious amounts of moisture exist over the area and these storms will likely be efficient heavy rain producers.
The Storm Prediction Center as of the 8pm update has pushed the enhanced risk further northwest where the higher likelihood of more widespread wind damage is highest.
Below is the wind damage probabilities which include a 30% enhanced probability just to our immediate northwest. A few storms once they reach our area will likely produce scattered pockets of wind damage at times along with heavy rainfall.
We’ll continue to monitor overnight and provide further updates if warranted.