3/15/17 Hazardous Weather Update 4PM
Latest trends on our convective allowing models are showing unfavorable conditions for severe weather this afternoon. QCA NWS launched a weather balloon which showed a strong cap in place, which will likely keep severe risks along with thunderstorm chances on the lower spectrum.
While we remain in the marginal and slight risk categories, our threats will remain conditional. In the instance where development would occur, it will pose risks of strong winds and minor hail. Tornado threat will remain very low.
Monday 5/15/17 8:49AM
We continue to monitor a complex severe weather setup for this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire area under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening.
A cluster of showers and thunderstorms currently working into parts of northern Iowa this morning will set the stage for more storm development later this afternoon as the disturbance associated with these storms moves into the region. At the same time a warm front will be lifting northward bringing in a moist and unstable air mass.
This complex of showers and storms will likely strengthen into the afternoon hours and progress rapidly towards the area by later this afternoon. A higher risk for damaging winds remains just to the north of the area along with an enhanced risk of large hail. With the warm front in the area an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
Timing for these storms will be after 3pm until around 10pm or so.
Damaging Winds: Moderate
Large Hail >1″: Moderate
Flash Flooding: Low
This will be an evolving threat this afternoon so make sure and pay attention to later forecasts.