Yesterday we discussed a chance for marginally severe thunderstorms for the period Sunday night through Monday morning. Thankfully it appears much of the threat will remain isolated & scattered much to our west. The area of concern will remain focused to the triple point across parts of Nebraska and Iowa, as well as along the proceeding dryline in Eastern Kansas and parts of Oklahoma.
Threats across Kansas where the dryline lies, will be limited to a few discrete cells which could bring a threat for severe hail, wind, and possibly a spinup. Areas along the dryline will be limited due to weak veer back profiles, and a strong cap. While dewpoints are forecast to range in the upper 50s to lower 60s, CAPE values are extremely limited to a small area especially above 3000 (about 2 counties in width). This won’t support long living thunderstorms ahead of the dryline. Therefor, an isolated severe event will remain likely across this area across eastern Kansas.
Furthermore, across Nebraska and Iowa; severe threats of all modes may be possible. Again we are skeptical of dew point numbers reaching the low 60s. We will keep a small area of strong CAPE values, and a strong cap will likely be in place due to a moving warm front. Here we focus on the triple point where a possible supercell could develop. While shear profiles are not strongly favorable for tornado development, one rotating updraft won’t be out of the question.
Overall, this is not a day that is favorable to chase unless it is in your backyard.
Further monitoring of this system for the Sauk Valley area will be limited. An isolated to scattered event is in the forecast, where a stronger updraft could produce pea to dime sized hail.
