A few ingredients are coming together for this afternoon and evening that could spawn a few severe storms across the region.
Early this morning, a decaying area of showers and embedded thunderstorms is currently pushing across west central Illinois. Meanwhile in southwestern Iowa a strengthening area of low pressure is moving east. A warm front is also situated along the Iowa Missouri border.
As the area of low pressure continues to advance east, the warm front will continue to push north through the late morning and early afternoon hours. This northward progress may be limited more if extensive cloud cover can remain over the area. This would keep the threat for stronger storms to the south of our area.
IF we can manage to break into some sunshine this afternoon, the warm front will likely move a bit further north putting our area in a more elevated risk for a few severe storms.
Wind fields today are favorable for rotating storms, especially near the warm front. The location of this front will be crucial for determining where the threat for a few tornadoes will be this afternoon.
High levels of moisture will also be present across the region leading to the threat for localized flash flooding. Rainfall rates in excess of 3 to 4 inches per hour will be likely.
As storms continue to organize the threat will transition from isolated tornadoes to damaging wind gusts in excess of 70 MPH.
The timing for the severe weather threat continues to favor 4pm until 10pm this evening.
We'll have more updates throughout the day as the situation continues to unfold.