A nice start to our weekend so far with lower humidity continuing and comfortable temperatures combined with mostly sunny skies. Unfortunately this pattern won’t be lasting much longer as a “Ring of Fire” pattern will look to establish itself over the Midwest beginning late Sunday.
A substantial amount of heat will continue to build over the central plains under a strong ridge of high pressure. The jet stream will be sent further to the north with disturbances rotating around the area of high pressure from time to time spawning active heavy rain producing thunderstorms beginning late Sunday night. This pattern looks to hold through at least Wednesday of this upcoming week.
Copious amounts of moisture from not only the Gulf of Mexico but also the maturing corn crop will push our dew point values well into the 70s and a few 80s are not out of the question by the middle of next week. This will send heat index values well into the 100s by Wednesday afternoon when heat advisories may be issued.
Forecast highs may be impacted by thunderstorm complexes but the general trend shows Wednesday so far being the hottest day of the week with heat index values topping out in the lower 100s.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed our local area under a slight risk for severe storms late Sunday evening and into Monday morning. A cluster of severe storms will likely form to our northwest Sunday afternoon/evening and then begin racing southeastward towards the area producing a damaging wind and hail threat. Heavy rainfall and frequent lightning is also likely with these storms arriving after 10pm.
This pattern favors repeated clusters of heavy rain producing thunderstorms through at least Wednesday. The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted our region for a greater risk at seeing rainfall amounts of 3 inches or more by Thursday.
Stay tuned to later forecasts regarding the severe and flooding threats this week. If you must be outdoors make sure to drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks in the shade.