We'll be ahead of a cold front through early this afternoon meaning more muggy conditions will be found until the front clears the area. A mix of sun and clouds can be expected with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm through the early afternoon. Highs will reach the middle 80s. Tuesday will be slightly cooler but less humid as the front continues to move south with sunny skies and highs in the middle 80s. Today's severe risk is lower than originally expected as forcing along the front has weakened. No severe weather is expected today.
We are carefully monitoring a potentially volatile situation for Wednesday regarding the threat for severe weather across the area. The cold front that moves through the area today will begin to retreat northward as a warm front, with very warm & unstable air to the south of the front. A disturbance will be working it's way down into the area by late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, possibly triggering a strong thunderstorm complex to the west of the area that will move through during the morning hours of Wednesday. Primary threats with this initial round include damaging winds and flash flooding.
Of more concern is what may occur Wednesday afternoon and evening as the warm front continues to work northward into the area. If we can manage to get destabilization to build across the area, upper level wind and near surface wind patterns are favorable for another strong round of severe storms by the afternoon and evening hours with ALL hazards of severe weather possible from large hail, damaging winds, flash flooding, and even tornadoes. These threats will become better defined over the next 24 hours as the event gets closer and the smaller features are better resolved.
Currently the SPC has the area under an ENHANCED RISK for severe weather Wednesday, meaning numerous severe storms are possible. Later outlooks especially by early Tuesday morning will more clearly define what threats will be highest.
WORD OF CAUTION: This event it still a couple days away and small details can affect the big picture. This forecast is not yet 100% set in stone, but the potential does exist for significant severe weather in or near the local area Wednesday. Please pay close attention to forecast updates over the next few days and have a plan of action for safety ready should it be required Wednesday.
After a cold front moves through Wednesday night quiet weather will round out the week with the next chance for storms not arriving until Saturday.